• INTRODUCTION
• IGNORING THE VICTIMS
• RESTRICTIVE DEFINITIONS
• THE REAL VICTIMS
• RISK ESTIMATES USED IN THIS ANALYSIS
• ESTIMATING DAMAGE TO AN EMBRYO OR FETUS
• GENETIC DAMAGE
• ESTIMATE OF TERATOGENIC EFFECTS

Up to 1,300 million people have been killed, maimed or diseased by nuclear power since its inception. The industry's figures massively underestimate the real cost of nuclear power, in an attempt to hide its victims from the world. Here, the author calculates the real number of victims of the nuclear age.

"VICTIMS OF THE NUCLEAR AGE"

IGNORING THE VICTIMS

The IAEA delegate's attitude was perfectly in keeping with that of his organization which, along with the International Commission on Radiological Protection [ICRP] exists in practice largely to play down the effects of radiation on human health, and to shield the nuclear industry from compensation claims from workers and the public. The IAEA was set up in the late 1950s by he UN, to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and to promote the peaceful use of atomic energy- ironically, two contradictory objectives. The ICRP which evolved from the 1928 physician's organization, International Committee on x-ray and Radium Protection, was set up in the nineteen fifties to explore the health effects of radiation and [theoretically] to protect the public from it. In fact, both organizations have come to serve the industry rather than the public.

The Chernobyl case is a classic example of the IAEA's inadequacy and questionable science. Despite massive evidence to the contrary, not least from the many thousands of victims themselves, the IAEA insists that only 32 people have so far died as a result of Chernobyl- those who died in the radiation ward of Hospital six in Moscow. All other deaths related to the disaster and its aftermath [and there have been many more than 10,000 in Ukraine alone according to the Minister of Health there] are ignored. Belarus had the highest fallout, and yet there is an international blackout among the IAEA and the rest of the "radiation protection community" on the suffering of its people.

The essential problem is that both the IAEA and the ICRP are dealing not with science but with politics and administration; not with public health but with maintaining an increasingly dubious industry. It is their interests, and those of the nuclear industry, to play down the health effects of radiation.

RESTRICTIVE DEFINITIONS

The main way in which the radiation protection industry has succeeded in hugely underrating the ill-health caused by nuclear power is by insisting on a group of extremely restrictive definitions as to what qualifies as a radiation-caused illness. For example, under IAEA's criteria:

• If a radiation-caused cancer is not fatal, it is not counted in the IAEA's figures
• If a cancer is initiated by another carcinogen, but accelerated or promoted by exposure to radiation, it is not counted.
• If an auto-immune disease or any non-cancer is caused by radiation, it is not counted.
• Radiation-damaged embryos or fetuses which result in miscarriage or stillbirth do not count
• A congenitally blind, deaf or malformed child whose illnesses are radiation-related are not included in the figures because this is not genetic damage, but rather is teratogenic, and will not be passed on later to the child's offspring.
• Causing the genetic predisposition to breast cancer or heart disease does not count since it is not a "serious genetic disease" in the Mendelian sense.
• Even if radiation causes a fatal cancer in any one or serious genetic disease in a live born infant, it is discounted if the estimated radiation dose is below 100 mSv [mSv means millisievert, a measurement of radiation exposure. A nuclear worker is permitted between 20 and 50 mSv per year.]
• Even if radiation causes a lung cancer, it does not count if the person smokes- in fact whenever there is a possibility of another cause, radiation cannot be blamed.

THE REAL VICTIMS

Despite the authorities' attempt at concealment, we can still begin to enumerate the real victims of the nuclear age. Although the calculations and statistics which I have brought to bear below do not include all of the human suffering that has been caused by the nuclear age, a closer look will show that the methodology is adequate for a first estimate of major damage. The magnitude of the harm already caused is startling, and even more so when we release many types of damage have been omitted from this first estimate.

My estimate of radiation damage, induced cancer, whether fatal or non-fatal [excluding non-fatal skin cancer], genetic damage and serious congenital malformations and diseases will be included in the figures. Other lesser human damage is acknowledged but not estimated.

The nuclear industry uses the word «detriment» for the radiation damage which it considers to be important. I have broadened that list. Ultimately, whether or not one cares about the damage caused by radiation exposure, i.e. refers to it as «detriment», is a human, not a scientific question. Damage is damage, and causing an unwanted attack on someone's person or reproductive capacity is a violation of human rights. Such damage can be rated for importance, but it should not be arbitrarily ignored.

"Statistics are the people with the tears wiped away" stated one of the Rongelap people of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, who 'hosted' the United States Bikini nuclear testing in the 1950s. This is the story of many tears, and of a hard hearted mindset that laid down the degree of suffering and ill-health that would be the 'acceptable' price to pay for the world 'benefiting' from nuclear technology.

RISK ESTIMATES USED IN THIS ANALYSIS

In order to estimate the real victims of the nuclear industry [as opposed to those figures enumerated by the ICRP, IAEA and other nuclear apologists] I will take the customary risk estimates, indicate their probable range of error, and then extend the definition to cover related events not recognized as 'detriments' by the regulators. For example, while the nuclear regulators only take fatal cancers into consideration as 'detriments', others, especially those who endure a non-fatal cancer, may find their suffering equally worthy of consideration. And limiting genetic effects to live born offspring does not wipe away the tears of a family that has endured a spontaneous miscarriage or stillbirth.

ESTIMATING THE FATAL AND NON-FATAL CANCER RISKS

In 1991, the ICRP concluded that the projected lifetime risk of fatal cancer for members of the population exposed to one Sievert whole-body radiation at a low dose rate, was between seven and 11 excess fatal cancers, and seven to eight excess fatalities for workers in the nuclear industry aged 25 to 64 years. We extend these estimates to non-fatal cancers by estimating the total number of cancers which were used by the ICRP in order to obtain their number of fatalities. We therefore estimate 16 fatal and non-fatal cancers if we exclude non-fatal skin cancers, or 26 if we count them. If the estimate of fatal cancers was too low by a factor of two then we can double these numbers.

The conservative estimate I will use for radiation induced cancer in this analysis is 16 per 100 Person Sieverts exposure, but the reader can adjust this estimate to suit other inclusions, exclusions or uncertainties.

ESTIMATING DAMAGE TO AN EMBRYO OR FETUS

According to the BEIR Committee [Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation] 1990 report, a dose of 150 mSv to human male testes will cause temporary sterility, and a single dose of 3.5 Sv will cause permanent sterility. According to the ICRP in 1991, just 5 mSv to the testes could cause damage to offspring - yet this dose was permitted yearly to members of the public, and ten times more was permitted to nuclear workers, in all countries prior to 1990. It continues today to be permitted yearly for nuclear workers in most countries.

Women carry with them all of the ova from birth which they will ever have. The threshold for permanent female sterilization decreases with age, but in general about 650 mSv is considered to be the threshold for temporary sterility in women. However, after the Bravo event- the detonation of a hydrogen bomb at the Bikini Atoll in the Pacific in March 1954- the women of Rongelap Atoll experienced about five years of sterility. As they regained their fertility, they experienced faulty pregnancies, miscarriages, stillbirths and damage to their offspring. Since some radionuclides can be retained in bone or fatty tissues, they are able to cross the placenta barrier and disrupt the developing embryo or fetus. Radionuclides in the mother's body can also be transferred to offspring in her breast milk.

The official nuclear industry definition of 'detriment' to offspring includes only serious genetic disease. It eliminates damage not judged to be serious, and all teratogenic diseases [those which are not passed on to offspring]. For example, radiation exposure in utero could cause a child to be blind or deaf, but that blindness or deafness would not be passed on to the child's offspring. This would be called teratogenic damage and not counted. Recently the 1990 BEIR committee made one small concession in recognizing mental retardation in children exposed to radiation during the fifth to 15th weeks of their mother's pregnancy. Radiation kills brain cells, causing both an underdeveloped brain [microcephaly] and mental retardation. For the individual child, BEIR estimates that a dose in utero of 100 to 500 mSv can cause a range of problems from poor school performance to severe mental retardation. This analysis considers both genetic and teratogenic damage to be «detrimental».

GENETIC DAMAGE

The U.N. Scientific Committee on the effects of Atomic Radiation [UNSCEAR] and BEIR both agree that a population of one million live births, with 100 Person Sieverts exposure to parents, will result in one to three genetic damage effects to offspring.

One can also use a second methodology to calculate genetic damage. The doubling dose for genetic effects [the dose that will cause twice as many genetic effects] is more contentious, with some geneticists claiming that it is 2.5 Sv, and others claiming much greater sensitivity with a 0.12 Sv doubling dose. If the total average dose to parents is 100 Person Sieverts, there will be 4 genetic effects per million live births if the doubling dose is 2.5 Sv, but there will be 83 such effects if the doubling dose is 0.12 Sv.

On the conservative side, we have taken 10 genetic effects to be the number of genetic effects for offspring of parents exposed to 100 Person Sieverts.

ESTIMATE OF TERATOGENIC EFFECTS

The damage to an embryo from ionizing radiation when in the womb is not ordinarily considered to be genetic (the exception would when the radiation damages the genetic material of the fetus). Such irradiation can lead to some 30 different congenital anomalies including permanent damage to the brain, mental deficiency, skull deformities, cleft palate, spina bifida, club-feet, genital deformities, growth retardation and childhood cancer. A total of all those effects, including those resulting in early embryonic or fetal mortality, amount to 46, of which 25 are in live born. I will use the conservative estimate 25 for congenital damage in this analysis.

When we summarize those risk estimates to be used in this analysis, we get 16 cancers, 10 genetic effects and 25 congenital effects in life born offspring for a mixed (age and sex) population of one million exposed to 100 Person Sieverts of ionizing radiation. This is a total of 51 «victims» for each 100 Person Sieverts exposure, of which 31.4% are assumed to be cancers, 19.6% are genetically damaged and 49% were congenitally damaged but both categories were live born.

The task now is to apply those numbers to the UNSCEAR estimate of nuclear radiation exposure to the global population, including atmospheric nuclear weapons testing and electricity production from nuclear power over the past half century.

The nuclear atmospheric weapon testing caused 1,138 million victims, with an additional 3.2 million due to nuclear weapon production.

Nuclear power has caused about 21 million victims and medical uses of radiation have produced another 4 million victims. There have been both military and civilian nuclear accidents producing 16 million and 15 million more victims respectively.

This gives a grand total of 1,200 million victims of the nuclear age. About 1,156 million are military related, 36 million are related to nuclear reactors, and 4 million are related to nuclear medicine use.

This Opinion Piece was prepared by Dr. Rosalie Bertell, President of the International Institute of Concern for Public Health, Toronto, Canada.